Slight Risk of Severe Storms Tomorrow

Summary

A low pressure is expected to deepen and move across the Florida Panhandle and parts of the South tomorrow, bringing a slight risk for the region tommorow

A deepening low pressure being pushed against a cold front is expected to develop tonight further and into tomorrow, moving over land between 1 pm-4 pm EST. As of 10:52 pm EST, the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the panhandle of Florida and Northern Central Florida under a slight risk for storms. We continued over the day looking at NAM and HRRR models throughout the day and saw that they are now in agreement that this low will make landfall around the Panama City area tomorrow. Along with the agreement of location, sounding models from both also insist that marginal severe weather is expected around the Tallahassee area. The NAM is also further insisting since 06z that there is a marginal tornado signature in the Tallahassee area as the storm moves over land tomorrow. Those soundings are available for viewing below.

As of the time of writing this, the RAP model was updated which shows MCAPE of 500-1000 moving over the area about 4pm, which in return has also started forecasting tornado risk in their sounding Predictions. We also saw the GFS 00z forecast for 21z, which shows a MCAPE in agreement with the RAP. The GFS is also forecasting a bulk shear to support some development, which is shown below